Measuring the Drivers of Metropolitan Growth: The Export Price Index

The Export Price Index (EPI) is a measure of exogenous price shocks to a city’s export industries. Thus far the EPI has been used to estimate models of metropolitan statistical area employment demand and appears to capture exogenous demand shocks to the regional economy. This article explains the intuition behind and construction of the EPI. Glaeser (2008) has noted that because “the economic theory of cities emphasizes a search for exogenous causes of endogenous outcomes like local wages, housing prices, and city growth, it is unsurprising that the economic empirics on cities have increasingly focused on the quest for exogenous sources of variation.” The EPI is such an exogenous cause. The EPI data discussed in this note are available through The George Washington University Center for Economic Research website at http://www.gwu.edu/~cer1/datasets/datasets.html

The Role of Geographic Proximity And Industrial Structure In Metropolitan Area Business Cycles

Measurement and prediction of aggregate economic fluctuations at the region, state, and metropolitan area level is a major challenge. As data quality and analytical techniques have improved, the analysis of coincident economic cycle indicators (CEI) has progressed from national to regional to state levels. This paper continues the trend of geographic disaggregation by constructing and analyzing CEI at the MSA level. The theoretical advantage of MSA level indexes is that they reflect labor market areas. Given lack of quarterly economic time series at the MSA level, we construct a new variable, the EPI (export price index). The EPI is an index number constructed to measure changes in the prices of goods produced by major industries located in metropolitan areas. Using non-agricultural employment and the EPI as MSA-specific variables, we are able to estimate following a Stock/Watson type single factor models. We find that, for larger states, with multiple MSAs, there is substantial variation in the amplitude and timing of cycles across MSAs. Further tests group MSAs within states by applying cluster analysis to the state series for the MSAs within a state. The groupings are interesting for two reasons. First, they confirm the differences observed within states. Secondly, and perhaps most important, the groupings of cyclically similar MSAs are not always based on geographic proximity as might be expected. It appears that industrial similarity of the MSA economies is also important for cyclical performance

Measurement of the t(t)over-bar production cross section in the dilepton channel in pp collisions at √s=8 TeV

The top-antitop quark (t (t) over bar) production cross section is measured in proton-proton collisions at root s = 8 TeV with the CMS experiment at the LHC, using a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 5.3 fb(-1). The measurement is performed by analysing events with a pair of electrons or muons, or one electron and one muon, and at least two jets, one of which is identified as originating from hadronisation of a bottom quark. The measured cross section is 239 +/- 2 (stat.) +/- 11 (syst.) +/- 6 (lum.) pb, for an assumed top-quark mass of 172.5 GeV, in agreement with the prediction of the standard model

Factors associated with low fitness in adolescents – A mixed methods study

Background: Fitness and physical activity are important for cardiovascular and mental health but activity and fitness levels are declining especially in adolescents and among girls. This study examines clustering of factors associated with low fitness in adolescents in order to best target public health interventions for young people. Methods: 1147 children were assessed for fitness, had blood samples, anthropometric measures and all data were linked with routine electronic data to examine educational achievement, deprivation and health service usage. Factors associated with fitness were examined using logistic regression, conditional trees and data mining cluster analysis. Focus groups were conducted with children in a deprived school to examine barriers and facilitators to activity for children in a deprived community. Results: Unfit adolescents are more likely to be deprived, female, have obesity in the family and not achieve in education. There were 3 main clusters for risk of future heart disease/diabetes (high cholesterol/insulin); children at low risk (not obese, fit, achieving in education), children ‘visibly at risk’ (overweight, unfit, many hospital/GP visits) and ‘invisibly at risk’ (unfit but not overweight, failing in academic achievement). Qualitative findings show barriers to physical activity include cost, poor access to activity, lack of core physical literacy skills and limited family support. Conclusions: Low fitness in the non-obese child can reveal a hidden group who have high risk factors for heart disease and diabetes but may not be identified as they are normal weight. In deprived communities low fitness is associated with non-achievement in education but in non-deprived communities low fitness is associated with female gender. Interventions need to target deprived families and schools in deprived areas with community wide campaigns

The Early Royal Society and Visual Culture

Recent studies have fruitfully examined the intersection between early modern science and visual culture by elucidating the functions of images in shaping and disseminating scientific knowledge. Given its rich archival sources, it is possible to extend this line of research in the case of the Royal Society to an examination of attitudes towards images as artefacts –manufactured objects worth commissioning, collecting and studying. Drawing on existing scholarship and material from the Royal Society Archives, I discuss Fellows’ interests in prints, drawings, varnishes, colorants, images made out of unusual materials, and methods of identifying the painter from a painting. Knowledge of production processes of images was important to members of the Royal Society, not only as connoisseurs and collectors, but also as those interested in a Baconian mastery of material processes, including a “history of trades”. Their antiquarian interests led to discussion of painters’ styles, and they gradually developed a visual memorial to an institution through portraits and other visual records.AH/M001938/1 (AHRC

Penilaian Kinerja Keuangan Koperasi di Kabupaten Pelalawan

This paper describe development and financial performance of cooperative in District Pelalawan among 2007 - 2008. Studies on primary and secondary cooperative in 12 sub-districts. Method in this stady use performance measuring of productivity, efficiency, growth, liquidity, and solvability of cooperative. Productivity of cooperative in Pelalawan was highly but efficiency still low. Profit and income were highly, even liquidity of cooperative very high, and solvability was good

Differential cross section measurements for the production of a W boson in association with jets in proton–proton collisions at √s = 7 TeV

Measurements are reported of differential cross sections for the production of a W boson, which decays into a muon and a neutrino, in association with jets, as a function of several variables, including the transverse momenta (pT) and pseudorapidities of the four leading jets, the scalar sum of jet transverse momenta (HT), and the difference in azimuthal angle between the directions of each jet and the muon. The data sample of pp collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of 7 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 5.0 fb[superscript −1]. The measured cross sections are compared to predictions from Monte Carlo generators, MadGraph + pythia and sherpa, and to next-to-leading-order calculations from BlackHat + sherpa. The differential cross sections are found to be in agreement with the predictions, apart from the pT distributions of the leading jets at high pT values, the distributions of the HT at high-HT and low jet multiplicity, and the distribution of the difference in azimuthal angle between the leading jet and the muon at low values.United States. Dept. of EnergyNational Science Foundation (U.S.)Alfred P. Sloan Foundatio

Impacts of the Tropical Pacific/Indian Oceans on the Seasonal Cycle of the West African Monsoon

The current consensus is that drought has developed in the Sahel during the second half of the twentieth century as a result of remote effects of oceanic anomalies amplified by local land–atmosphere interactions. This paper focuses on the impacts of oceanic anomalies upon West African climate and specifically aims to identify those from SST anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Oceans during spring and summer seasons, when they were significant. Idealized sensitivity experiments are performed with four atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The prescribed SST patterns used in the AGCMs are based on the leading mode of covariability between SST anomalies over the Pacific/Indian Oceans and summer rainfall over West Africa. The results show that such oceanic anomalies in the Pacific/Indian Ocean lead to a northward shift of an anomalous dry belt from the Gulf of Guinea to the Sahel as the season advances. In the Sahel, the magnitude of rainfall anomalies is comparable to that obtained by other authors using SST anomalies confined to the proximity of the Atlantic Ocean. The mechanism connecting the Pacific/Indian SST anomalies with West African rainfall has a strong seasonal cycle. In spring (May and June), anomalous subsidence develops over both the Maritime Continent and the equatorial Atlantic in response to the enhanced equatorial heating. Precipitation increases over continental West Africa in association with stronger zonal convergence of moisture. In addition, precipitation decreases over the Gulf of Guinea. During the monsoon peak (July and August), the SST anomalies move westward over the equatorial Pacific and the two regions where subsidence occurred earlier in the seasons merge over West Africa. The monsoon weakens and rainfall decreases over the Sahel, especially in August.Peer reviewe

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis